The Coalition for Ohio’s Future is a broad-based, bi-partisan organization including teachers and other educators, firefighters, police, elected officials, concerned citizens, social service organizations, business people, doctors and other health professionals, labor unions, senior citizens, faith-based organizations and many others all dedicated to defeating the TEL Amendment.
A State of Decline: What a TABOR Would Mean for Ohio (cont.)
Endnotes
1 The base used in this analysis – General Revenue Fund expenditures – is the same as that used in a recent analysis by Scott Borgemenke, House Chief of Staff. The Borgemenke analysis is based on House Joint Resolution/Senate Joint Resolution 4 sponsored by Representative Reidelbach and Senator Jordan, which is slightly more restrictive than the proposed Blackwell Amendment. The Borgemenke analysis found that accumulative total of $25 billion would have been cut since 1995, and 2005 expenditures would fall short of actual expenditures by $4.1 billion or 23 percent.
2 Our analysis shows that spending would have had to have been $2.7 billion below actual for FY 2003, a reduction of 16.3 percent. FY 2003 is used in this analysis rather than FY 2005 because current information on government program activities is not fully available through FY 2005.
3 Estimated teacher cuts were calculated as the total K-12 expenditure shortfall divided by the average annual Ohio teacher salary plus compensation. Source: American Federation of Teachers, Teacher Salary Survey, 2004. Fringe benefits were estimated as 30 percent of salary.
4 Estimated number of school days lost was computed by dividing the total yearly expenditure on Ohio public K-12 schools by the number of school days per year (182). The result was an average cost per day of operating all Ohio public K-12 schools. Source: National Center for Education Statistics.
5 The estimate of $1.1 billion in reduced Medicaid services is derived from adding $452 million in state expenditure reductions to the product of $452 million times the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) for Medicaid. The FMAP, which is based on a state’s per capita income, determines the federal dollar match for each dollar of state expenditure. In Federal fiscal years 2002 and 2003, the FMAP for Ohio was 58.78 and 58.83, respectively. Due to the federal fiscal relief, FMAPs were temporarily increased from April 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004, which means states reducing Medicaid expenditure during this time period would have lost more federal funding than normal. However, for the purposes of this estimate, Ohio’s normal FMAP was used. Therefore, the estimate of $1.1 billion in reduced Medicaid services is a conservative calculation since Ohio would have lost additional federal Medicaid funding had the legislature actually reduced state Medicaid expenditure during this time.
6 The SCHIP program covers children from 0 to 5 years of age with family incomes between 133 percent and 200 percent of the poverty line and children 6 to 19 years of age with incomes between 100 and 200 percent of the poverty line.
7 The Healthy Families expansion covers parents with incomes between about 80 and 100 percent of the poverty line. Most of these parents would get transitional Medicaid coverage for up to 12 months, but they would eventually lose Medicaid coverage. The savings estimate assumes they completely lost coverage by 2003.
8 We assume that all children are entitled to prescription drugs under Early Periodic Screening Diagnosis and Treatment requirements in Medicaid.
9 Figure derived by dividing the total public safety shortfall by the average annual cost per inmate in 2003 ($23,349). Source: Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections, Annual Report.
10 Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction, Population Projections, December 2003.
11 Figure derived by dividing total public safety shortfall by average compensation (salary and benefits) for security employees in the Department of Rehabilitation and Correction. Figure is based on fiscal year 2004 spending and employment. Source: Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction, Fiscal Year 2004 Annual Report.
12 The total net budgets of these seven facilities was approximately $260 million in fiscal year 2004. Source: Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction.
13 Presumably, spending cuts would be made to Ohio’s largest source of state support for public institutions of higher education — the State Share of Instruction (SSI). The SSI provides general operating support to Ohio’s 62 state-assisted colleges and universities and helps students and parents by reducing the amount they would otherwise have to pay in tuition and fees. In fiscal year 2003, the state gave more than $1.5 billion in assistance through SSI. SSI per student comes from Ohio’s fiscal year 2003 State Share of Instruction total (budget line item GRF 235-501) divided by the total number of eligible Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) students. Source: State of Ohio Executive Budget, Fiscal Years 2006 and 2007 and Ohio Legislative Service Commission,
14 SSI funding for individual campuses available from Ohio Board of Regents, 2004: Ohio’s Colleges and Universities: Profile of Student Outcomes, Experiences, and Campus Measures, Table 20b.
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